The Road to Omaha: South Carolina regional preview
Which South Carolina team are we going to see in this tournament?
Despite a tough end to the season that saw South Carolina lose several key players to injuries such as starters Noah Hall and Will Sanders along with infielders Braylen Wimmer and Will McGillis and most recently in the SEC Tournament catcher Cole Messina with a concussion the Gamecocks impressed enough to earn a Top 16 national seed and host a regional in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. The Gamecocks play host to two conference auto-bid winners in Central Connecticut State Blue Devils and Campbell Camels the latter of which had a strong case to be a host alongside the four other teams from the Carolinas that received the honor. The at-large teams in Columbia are of course the Gamecocks who fell in the SEC Tournament and the North Carolina State Wolfpack from the ACC.
South Carolina Gamecocks 39-19 (16-13) RPI: 6th
Record vs RPI Top 50: 18-15
Offensive Stats: 197th Batting Average (.270), 31st On-Base% (.406), 45th Slugging% (.501), T-9th Home Runs (110), T-160th Stolen Bases (55), T-45th Runs per Game (7.7)
Pitching Stats: 17th ERA (4.20), 29th Hits/9 (8.4), 14th WHIP (1.32), 23rd Strikeouts/9 (10.1), 8th in K/BB (2.88)
South Carolina rose as high as #3 in the polls and reached the top spot in RPI while notching series wins against Clemson and Mississippi State splitting a series with LSU and sweeping series vs Mizzou, Georgia, and Florida but after that Florida series and a 34-6 record everything went downhill. The Gamecocks went just 5-13 the rest of the way not winning a single series as it just seemed like they couldn’t get every facet firing at the same time. Some games it would be the starting pitching putting USC in a hole early, others the bats would go quiet in close losses, and then there were times where the Gamecocks fought to stay in a game late and the bullpen bowed out. A lot of that can be attributed to the aforementioned injuries something that seemingly are going to be less of an issue in the postseason for the Gamecocks. Will Sanders (and his high 90s fastball) is primed to return starting out in the bullpen where he has pitched to a 2.03 ERA in his career. All-SEC catcher Cole Messina is day to day after his concussion and his health would be a huge boost for the Gamecocks. Messina is second on the team in average, on-base, and slugging boasting a 1.062 OPS with 17 home runs and 67 RBI as well. 2B Will McGillis figures to miss the regional as he looks to return from a broken arm but the Gamecocks will get former starting shortstop Braylen Wimmer back in the field opening up the DH spot in the lineup. Wimmer a senior leader for USC ranks 5th amongst batters with 100+ PA in OPS on the team and is 4th in home runs. The gamebreaker for USC’s lineup is of course true freshman right fielder Ethan Petry as he led the team in OPS (1.216), HRs (22), and RBI (72). Pitching wise the Gamecocks will look towards a starting trio of Eli Jones, James Hicks, and Jack Mahoney for this weekend with every other arm under the sun available in the bullpen sans Noah Hall who’s season is over.
Central Connecticut State Blue Devils 36-12 (25-5) RPI: 111th
Record vs RPI Top 50: 0-4
Offensive Stats: 34th Batting Average (.302), 69th On-Base% (.395), 89th Slugging% (.472), T-170th Home Runs (54), T-155th Stolen Bases (56), T-45th Runs per Game (7.7)
Pitching Stats: 67th ERA (5.02), 44th Hits/9 (8.6), 55th WHIP (1.42), 253rd Strikeouts/9 (7.2), 171st in K/BB (1.73)
The Blue Devil champions of the NEC are led by Head Coach Charlie Hickey who won his 5th NEC Coach of the Year award this season and are a team that is going to lean heavily on their offense. One of the best teams in the country at making contact with 7 players batting .300 or better (100+ PA) although they lack power with only 4 players having more than 5 home runs. Their leader on offense is Boston College transfer Ramon Jimenez with a .348/.415/.604 slash line and 28 extra base hits however the Blue Devils will be without him for the first game of the regional due to a suspension. Catcher Jeff Nicol and left fielder Jimmy Sulivan both have OPS’ in the .930s forming a potent trio at the top of the lineup. The Blue Devils scorched their way through NEC conference play not dropping a single series and only lost one game in the conference tournament, an 8-3 decision to Wagner they would later avenge twice, but in four games against teams in the tournament field (two against LSU and one-offs vs Northeastern and UCONN) they lost by a combined score of 44-4 and a lot of that comes down to the pitching. While CCSU’s pitching was good enough for the NEC it is fair to wonder whether or not it will hold up against the thunderous lineups in the Columbia regional. NEC Pitcher of the Year Dominic Niman who struck out 90 batters with a 2.76 ERA in 14 starts and almost 100 innings is according to their coach going to be Jake Neuman going in game 1 vs South Carolina. Neuman had a 4.64 ERA and .304 Batting Average Against in 13 starts and was hit around for 8 runs by LSU in one of those games back in March. Niman threw 231 pitches over a 4 day stretch in the NEC Tournament to secure the win for the Blue Devils so he is getting the extra rest. In terms of bullpen arms it gets even worse for CCSU but Luke Garofalo is a lone bright spot with a 2.03 ERA in 43 innings. The Blue Devils will need their lineup to be at its best and Neuman and Niman to go deep into games to try and pull off miracles in Columbia.
North Carolina State Wolfpack 35-19 (13-16) RPI: 23rd
Record vs RPI Top 50: 10-17
Offensive Stats: 57th Batting Average (.297), 61st On-Base% (.398), 24th Slugging% (.515), T-39th Home Runs (89), T-249th Stolen Bases (34), T-36th Runs per Game (7.8)
Pitching Stats: 26th ERA (4.37), 52nd Hits/9 (8.72), T-31st WHIP (1.37), T-27th Strikeouts/9 (9.9), 15th in K/BB (2.75)
NC State is one of the more interesting teams in this tournament just based on their regular season alone. The Wolfpack cruised to a 13-0 start including a 16-4 beatdown of #10 national seed Coastal Carolina in Conway. They then turned into one of the most Jekyll and Hyde teams in the nation losing 5/6, then winning 5/8, then losing 4 straight, then winning 5 straight and on and on and on. They’d win big and lose big but a late season series win in South Bend and a sweep of Pitt put the Pack in the tournament after being the first team out a season ago. Despite losing Tommy “Tanks” White to LSU in the transfer portal NCSU remained a premier power threat in the ACC with none better than All-ACC freshman designated hitter Cannon Peebles who had a .715 slugging with 23 of his 45 hits going for extra bases. The Wolfpack infield is a great strength from the plate with every member having an OPS north of .845 but even the outfield rakes. Although the bread and butter of this team is in the lineup this team will go as far as their pitching can take them. NCSU got some great outings down the stretch and excelled all year long at striking out hitters while simultaneously not dishing out free passes with their trio of starting pitchers all posting 75 or more Ks to go with fewer than 30 walks. Of those 3 starters only Dom Fritton averages more than 5 innings per start with his 3.59 ERA and .210 BAA he is a huge anchor for the Wolfpack to rely upon. They’ll need that kind of length from Logan Whitaker and Matt Willasden because one of the places NCSU had trouble with this season was in the bullpen and you can notice some of the blowup games on their schedule. If the Pack ‘pen is at its best to go along with their lineup and good starting pitching this is a program that knows how to win on the road in the tournament and could be a Cinderella once again.
Campbell Camels 44-13 (22-5) RPI: 13th
Record vs RPI Top 50: 9-5
Offensive Stats: 11th Batting Average (.318), 1st On-Base% (.441), 2nd Slugging% (.566), 5th Home Runs (116), T-8th Stolen Bases (129), 1st Runs per Game (9.8)
Pitching Stats: 36th ERA (4.35), 4th Hits/9 (7.5), T-22nd WHIP (1.35), T-41st Strikeouts/9 (9.6), 88th in K/BB (2.05)
Arguably the best team in this regional is from far and away the smallest school here and one of the smallest in the tournament. But don’t let that 6k enrollment fool you the Camels are no slouch and had a real claim to be a Top 16 national seed in this tourney. Campbell breezed through a non-conference schedule that ranked 22nd in the nation going 22-8 including series wins against Coastal Carolina, Rutgers, App State, and AAC Tournament champion Tulane. The buck didn’t stop there as the Camels then went 22-5 vs Big South opponents with 2 of those losses being in the final weekend to a very good USC Upstate squad on the road who Campbell matched up with and defeated twice in the Big South tournament. Campbell has one of the most potent lineups in the country and the stats back that up and a lot of that comes from the stability of their lineup. 7 hitters played in at least 50 games with third baseman Chandler Ridley playing in 45 as well. Rare is it for a team to be so good at both powering the ball over the fence and causing havoc on the basepaths as the only team other than Campbell to be in the Top 10 nationally for both being Dallas Baptist. Second baseman Jarrod Belbin had 19 home runs and 25 stolen bases to go with 62 RBI and a 1.088 OPS and centerfielder Tyler Halstead having 32 stolen bases and 28 extra base hits as well. The #1 threat in the Camel lineup is right fielder Lawson Harrill who had 22 home runs and 16 doubles and a 1.272 OPS. If there is a weakness to be found in this Campbell team it is that they really struggle with free passes. The Camel pitching staff excels at limiting hits and are pretty good at getting guys to strikeout but when it comes to walks and hit by pitches the entire staff struggles. Starter Cade Kuehler is who Campbell lives and dies by with his 87 strikeouts in 67 innings only 2 home runs allowed and a 2.82 ERA with a .191 BAA and he will undoubtedly get the nod game 1. Beyond him there are question marks in the Camel rotation with Chance Daquila having a 8-1 record in 13 starts but a 5.25 ERA and Hunter Loyd having 64 strikeouts but a 4.61 ERA and 32 walks. Ty Cummings and Jackson Roberts are key pieces out of the bullpen and are bound to see a lot of usage this weekend. The Camels will have a prime opportunity to prove to the NCAA and everyone else that they deserved to host a regional.
Final Thoughts and Prediction
The Regional begins with NCSU and Campbell playing at 1 p.m. on ESPN+ and the Gamecocks facing the Blue Devils at 7 p.m. This is a super tough regional and there are enough strengths to pick any of the four teams but also enough weaknesses to make an argument against them as well. North Carolina State was playing some of the best baseball in the country down the stretch but they match up with one of the best teams in the land while a refreshed and healthier Gamecock squad takes on a prolific lineup. Something about this NC State team has me hooked and I think if they are able to get to Kuehler playing at Founders Park would really benefit how the Pack play. On the other game I think South Carolina returning home where they are 26-7 on the season and getting some big pieces back healthy is going to loom large against a CCSU team missing its ace and #1 hitter. In terms of who wins and advances on to the super regional I’m leaning towards a homer pick of the Gamecocks and an upset pick in NCSU and I’ll just say I think they meet and go the distance to decide this one.