Notre Dame enters the 2023 College Football season ranked 13th in the AP Poll in year 2 under Marcus Freeman. We already touched on the team the Irish themselves are bringing onto the field and here we’re gonna take a look in at the first half of Notre Dame’s schedule as the Irish look continue their momentum from the second half of the 2022 season.
Week 0: Navy
When: August 26th 2:30 pm Eastern (7:30 pm local)
Where: Dublin, Ireland Aviva Stadium
Last matchup: 35-32 Notre Dame win in 2022
Navy enters 2023 with a new Head Coach for the first time since 2007 as Ken Niumatalolo was fired the day after the Midshipmen’s overtime loss to Army to complete their third straight losing season. He leaves as the Naval Academy all time leader in games coached, wins, bowl game appearances, and bowl game wins with a 109-83 record overall. Replacing Kenny is Brian Newberry who joined the Middies for the 2019 season as defensive coordinator after Navy suffered a dreadful 3-10 2018 campaign. Newberry engineered a massive resurgence for the defense ranking in the top 35 for most stats in the 11-2 season for the academy however the defense would take a massive step back in 2020 and 2021 before rebounding to post improved numbers in 2022 including the 23rd most sacks in the nation in terms of points per game and total yardage but the secondary was one of the worst secondaries in college football ranking in the 100s in almost every statistic imaginable. The good news for Navy is that they return just about every piece from that defense but the bad news is the one major departure is who was their best player. John Marshall led Navy in tackles, sacks, tackles for loss, pass breakups, quarterback hits, and tied for the lead in interceptions. 5 of Navy’s 8 losses were by one score including their feverish second half comeback attempt in Baltimore vs Notre Dame and continued improvement on the defensive end should help turn that tide with a depth chart almost entirely comprised of upperclassmen who have spent their entire careers in Newberry’s system. One reason to look for more improvement in the Navy secondary is that they’re also going to be practicing more against actual passing concepts. Newberry’s Navy offense will be coordinated by Grant Chesnut from Kennesaw State who is working in more modern formations and looks while still not totally moving away from the flexbone. Navy returns 4 of their top 5 rushers from last season including Daba Fofana who put up 841 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground. Projected starters beyond Fofana in the backfield in the base flexbone have a combined 3 starts in Brandon Chatman and Anton Hall. At quarterback Navy has returning starter Tai Lavatai who put up 787 yards and 5 touchdowns through the air and 384 yards and 5 touchdowns with his legs in a season where he made just 7 starts due to injury. Lavatai also missed the entirety of spring ball while the man who replaced him on the gridiron Xavier Arline got hurt during the spring while playing for the Midshipmen lacrosse team leaving redshirt freshman Teddy Gleaton as the presumed starter but he has missed practice this summer due to summer school so who really knows who is under center in Dublin. Out wide Navy loses 4 of their 5 leading receivers from last season but top man Jayden Umbarger showcased big play ability with 16.6 yards per catch. There’s a lot of youth beyond him in the WR room that could look to get more involved as the offense opens up in 2023. The Irish get an early stage in Week 0 to show the world what they have against an old foe with a lot of new faces in play.
Week 1: Tennessee State
When: September 2nd 3:30 pm
Where: South Bend, Indiana Notre Dame Stadium
Last matchup: This is the first meeting between Notre Dame and Tennessee State
In 2023 Notre Dame will play a FCS (Football Championship Subdivision) opponent for the first time in program history and that opponent is Eddie George’s Tennessee State Tigers. George is in his third year as the head coach and is 9-13 so far going 5-6 in 2021 and 4-7 in 2022. Last season the Tigers started 0-4 with the only loss that wasn’t competitive being a loss vs FBS foe Middle Tennessee State before winning 3 straight and then losing 3 straight and ending their season 22-14 victory over Texas A&M Commerce. The streakiness of the team can be defined by their offense’s inability to stay on the field. TSU converted just 33.5% of third downs, averaged just barely over 300 yards per game, 3.5 yards per carry with their rushing attack, and they only entered the redzone 29 times on the season ultimately culminating in a paltry 18.2 points per game. Back for the Tigers in 2023 is signal caller Draylen Ellis who started 10 games and put up 1,807 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions with a 54.8% completion percentage while picking up 371 yards and 4 touchdowns with his legs. On the ground TSU lost their 2nd leading rusher Devon Starling to the transfer portal but their leader is back as junior Jalen Rouse gained 646 yards and had 2 touchdowns with a 4.8 yards per carry. Rouse Starling and Ellis were the only people with significant carries in 2022. In terms of receiving the group for 2023 is insanely young with 10 underclassmen out wide. They had 5 players with over 200 receiving yards in 2022 and lost 3 of them with redshirt sophomore Karate Brenson as their biggest threat. Defensively Tennessee State was an interesting unit. Struggling against the run to the tune of 174 yards per game but only giving up 24 points per game, forcing 20 turnovers, and picking up 37 sacks in just 11 games. They lose a lot of their top stat getters both in the secondary and up front but this figures to be a team that leans on that unit to create chaos and give their offense short fields. Notre Dame will be looking to open up their home defense in 2023 with a big win.
Week 2: North Carolina State
When: September 9th 12:00 pm
Where: Raleigh, North Carolina Carter-Finley Stadium
Last matchup: 35-14 Notre Dame win in 2017
North Carolina State has won eight or more games five of the last six seasons but are still looking for their first ten win season since 2002. In 2022 the Wolfpack looked well on their way to that mark starting 5-1 in the first half of the season with ACC preseason player of the year Devin Leary manning the helm at QB with their only loss being by 10 points to an unbeaten Clemson team in Death Valley. But in their 19-17 victory over Florida State to attain their fifth win Leary suffered an injury that would keep him out the rest of the season and the Wolfpack would then cycle through 3 QBs over the last 7 games where they would go 3-4 including a last second home loss to Boston College but also knocking off Top 20 rival UNC in Chapel Hill in double overtime before falling to Maryland in a dreadful 16-12 Mayo Bowl. Of the 4 QBs to start a game for the pack only 1 remains as MJ Morris performed greatly in his true freshman year throwing 7 TDs and 1 pick in limited action. Despite this showcase NCSU hit the transfer portal reuniting Brennan Armstrong with his old OC from his UVA days as they hired Robert Anae after Tim Beck left to take the head coaching job at Coastal Carolina. Anae and Armstrong look to be a shot in the arm of an offense that averaged 21.8 points per game (99th in the country), 323.3 yards per game (109th), 3.2 yards per carry (120th), 6.1 yards per pass (116th), converted only 35.2% of third downs (96th), and was 53rd in the country in sack%. Armstrong brings with him 8,776 passing yards, 53 touchdowns, and 33 interceptions on 60% completion along with 1,267 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns in 30 starts. Armstrong and Morris’ combined abilities with their legs will look to open up an avenue of the NCSU offense that has been far from a strength in the Dave Doeren era which is the run game.Senior Jordan Houston returns as the lead man in the backfield after posting 4 yards a carry and 574 yards as the leading rusher for the 2022 team along with sophomore Michael Allen who saw playing time in his freshman campaign picking up over 5 yards a carry for 278 yards in 7 games. Anae’s offenses were never big on the ground in Arlington but he does have more to work with in terms of an offensive line. In 2022 despite having to replace Ikem Ekwonu the Wolfpack had 95 career starts combined but allowed more sacks and was a generally weaker unit than the 2021 squad in terms of EPA. This year NCSU returns just two starters up front but did add Oregon transfer Dawson Jaramillo who was a highly rated recruit and the two deep is full of upperclassmen with a combined 65 starts and Dave Doeren really likes this group. NCSU loses 3/4 leading receivers from last year a group that suffered greatly from the merry-go-round that was the QB position after the Leary injury. There isn’t a lot to go off of production wise for the 2023 team but Keyon Lasane and Julian Gray are both quick guys along with 6’4 DJ Collins a transfer from Clemson and Anae usually gets the most from his WRs so don’t be shocked if more stability at the QB position leads to significantly increased production. Defensively the 2022 unit for NCSU was one of the best in all of College Football posting Top 15 rankings in just about every stat imaginable led by a trio of outstanding linebackers as Drake Thomas, Isaiah Moore, and Payton Wilson combined for 265 tackles, 15 sacks, 31.5 tackles for loss, 10 pass breakups, and 39 quarterback hits in 2022. Thomas and Moore depart for 2023 but Wilson returned for his sixth season and the linebacker room was bolded with the portal with Old Dominion’s Robert Kennedy as well as the rise of some guys who bided their time behind Thomas and Moore in Devon Betty and Jaylon Scott as upperclassmen to round out the backend of the Wolfpack 3-4 base look. Up front NCSU lost NT Cory Durden but this is a very deep group with a lot of veteran talent such as Davin Vann, CJ Clark, and Savion Jackson who have all started a combined 47 games for this defense. With how great the front seven was in 2022 the secondary was even better posting 19 interceptions and a 57% completion percentage against with only 235 yards a game. They lost both starting safeties but Devan Boykin and Jakeen Harris, the projected starters for 2023, have seen ample playing time while at corner Shyheim Battle and Aydan White are back. White was an honorable mention All-American last year and him and Wilson look to lead another great Doeren defense. Notre Dame QB Sam Hartman was sacked 4 times and threw 3 interceptions vs NCSU in Raleigh last season and this defense is going to be chomping at the bit to get back after him. This is Notre Dame’s biggest pre gauntlet test and the Wolfpack will be waiting in a steamy noon kickoff environment with a retooled offense and an always strong defense.
Week 3: Central Michigan
When: September 16th 2:30 pm
Where: South Bend, Indiana Notre Dame Stadium
Last matchup: This is the first meeting between Notre Dame and Central Michigan
Notre Dame returns to the friendly confines of South Bend after the Raleigh trip looking to remain unbeaten vs MAC competition. The Chips come to town led by Jim McElwain who is in his 5th year in Mount Pleasant, Michigan after being fired by the Florida Gators and is 24-21 as the head man for the Chippewas. He took over a team that went 1-11 in 2018 and led them to the MAC Title Game and 8 wins and then in 2021 CMU won 9 games including a Sun Bowl W over Wazzu! 2022, however, was not so kind to CMU as they went just 4-8 and struggled heavily with revolving door at QB. Incumbent starter and leading passer Daniel Richardson is gone and replacing him is an interesting task for McElwain. Jase Bauer was a true freshman who replaced Richardson vs Bowling Green and threw for 185 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception on 18-25 passing and started vs NIU but got injured. Then came Bert Emmanuel who didn’t get to do much with his arm but ran for 293 yards and 3 touchdowns in a comeback win vs Buffalo and ended up being the second leading rusher on the team as a whole with 556 yards and would lead the team in rushing touchdowns with 7 and was able to redshirt. Bauer and Emmanuel would split snaps the remaining few games leading into a QB battle that it looks like Bauer has won going into 2023. In the RB room they return everyone but their top rusher from a year ago and have an incredibly skilled offensive line with 3 starters back and the 2 guys that didn’t start last year were knocked out due to injury and have extensive playing history. Offensively this team looks like it fits perfectly into what McElwain wants to do which is control the ground game and let everything else fall into place. Defensively CMU was a bit of a mess in the backend but incredibly strong upfront. They were amongst the leaders in all of college football in creating havoc and excelled in tackles for loss and sacks including a two game stretch vs Akron and Buffalo were they compiled 15 sacks. The struggles by the offense led to the defense being on the field and were towards the bottom in time of possession and thus the deficiencies in the secondary were allowed to be more regularly exposed but this year they return 3 starters and plenty of players with experience along with their always potent front to the tune of 9 starters total back. This is Notre Dame’s final tune-up game before the College Football world descends upon South Bend.
Week 4: Ohio State
When: September 23rd 7:30 pm Eastern
Where: South Bend, Indiana Notre Dame Stadium
Last matchup: 21-10 Ohio State win in 2022
If Notre Dame is able to take care of business in the weeks preceding this the stage will be set for potentially one of the biggest Notre Dame home games since 1993. Last season the Irish and Buckeyes kicked off the season under the lights in the shoe in Columbus and despite leading well into the second half ND just couldn’t get it done. Ohio State went on to win their next ten games before Michigan came to town and defeated the Buckeyes for a 2nd straight year in a 45-23 beatdown. OSU still made it to the College Football Playoff and lost by just a single point to eventual national champion Georgia on a final seconds missed field goal. In 2023 for Ohio State all eyes are on how they will replace C.J. Stroud at quarterback and as of writing this the battle between Kyle McCord and Devin Brown is going strong. McCord is a former four star recruit in his third year at OSU who has seen almost exclusively late game mop up duty except for a 2021 start vs Akron due to an injury to Stroud where he threw for 319 yards and 2 touchdowns and Brown is a former four star as well who redshirted in the 2022 season. Both QBs have similar playstyles and will have a wealth of talent around them as the only big loss in the skill group was Jaxson Smith-Njigba who was out most of 2022 in the first place. The Buckeyes return their top six in terms of receiving yards and their top three rushers for 2023 with Miyan Williams, TreVeyon Henderson, and Dallan Hayden all averaging over 5 yards per carry in 2022 to the tune of over 2,000 rushing yards and 26 touchdowns combined. In the WR room Marvin Harrison Jr. is one of the most hyped up players in all of college football and for good reason as the son of the Hall of Fame Colt put up 1,263 yards and 14 touchdowns in his sophomore campaign but he is far from the only star. Fellow junior Emeka Egbuka had 1,151 yards and 10 touchdowns and along with Julian Fleming, Cade Stover, and Jayden Ballard wide receiver is far and away the deepest and most talented position for the Buckeyes in 2023. Up front OSU does lose 3/5 starters from last year but they hit the transfer portal hard bringing in Josh Simmons and Victor Culter who combined for 25 starts last year at San Diego State and Louisiana-Monroe respectively. On defense Jim Knowles came over from Oklahoma State and made an immediate impact on the Buckeye defense posting one of the best units in the country allowing barely over 300 yards a game. In his patented 4-2-5 look Ohio State’s two big linebackers Tommy Eichenberg and Steele Chambers flew all over the place for a combined 197 tackles and 14 tackles for loss and they’re both back for 2023 to captain this defense. Their defensive line has four players who started six or more games in 2022 back with 3/4 being at least honorable mention All-B1G but there is a possible issue of depth as the guys behind them don’t have much in the way of extensive experience. The secondary is an interesting case as it has typically struggled under Ryan Day and they lose three starters but hit the portal hard adding Ja’Had Carter who made 27 starts for Syracuse in his career at safety and Davison Igbinosun who started 10 games for Ole Miss last year at corner. The skill of the men in the box should help Ohio State mask the question marks in the secondary at least until they can get settled in. This is going to be possibly the biggest tone setter of the Marcus Freeman era and both teams are going to be chomping at the bit.
Week 5: Duke
When: September 30th time TBA
Where: Durham, North Carolina Wallace Wade Stadium
Last matchup: 27-13 Notre Dame win in 2020
Following the emotional rollercoaster that surely will be the Ohio State game Notre Dame travels back to the Carolinas for the second time in September to finish off the first half of the season with a trip to face old friend of the program Mike Elko and the Duke Blue Devils. In 2022 in the first year of the Elko reign Duke shocked everybody by putting together a 9-4 campaign including a 30-13 demolition of UCF in the Military Bowl which was more than enough for an ACC Coach of The Year honor. It was the most wins in a season for Duke since 2014 and the four losses were by 8, 3, 4, and 2 points with three of those games being on the road so things could have been even better for the Blue Devils. The tools are certainly there to build upon that impressive first season as well since Duke returns ten starters on offense and eight starters on defense from a season ago. On offense Duke was a steady consistent factor ranking in the top 45 in almost every stat but really failing to break into the top 25 except for in their ability to keep their QB off the ground and not turn the ball over which led to a +16 TO margin on the season. Quarterback Riley Leonard is back after his first full season as a starter where he passed for 2,967 yards 20 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on 63.8% completion while also leading the team in rushing picking up 812 yards and 13 touchdowns with his legs which landed him as an honorable mention All-ACC selection. In the backfield with Leonard is a steady diet of three experienced running backs in Jordan Waters, Jaquez Moore, and Jaylen Coleman with Waters and Moore putting up over 500 yards and Coleman with 491 and a combined 17 rushing touchdowns. On the offensive line Duke was outstanding last year and return a combined 122 career starts with multiple seniors and All-ACC mentions decorating their depth chart. Duke returns every single player who recorded a reception for them last year as well including Jalon Calhoun and Jordan Moore who put up 873 and 656 yards respectively with third man Sahmir Hagans adding 5 touchdowns. Defensively it was a quintessential Mike Elko bend don’t break approach as they ranked top 25 in scoring and stiffened up in the redzone but struggled in between the 20s. Their rushing stats on paper look really really good but that is because teams barely ran the ball vs Duke because they could get whatever they wanted through the air. Teams threw it over 55% of the time vs Duke which was one of the worst marks in the FBS to the tune of 267.3 yards per game (107th) and 7.2 yards per pass (69th). Improvement in the secondary is gonna be greatly needed and they lose All-ACC safety Darius Joiner to the NFL but other safety Jalen Stinson is back after a stellar season and the corner position has been bolstered by the arrival of Miami transfer Al Blades and Texas A&M transfer Myles Jones who have combined for 45 starts in their careers. The nickelback Brandon Johnson was their best defender beyond Joiner last season and he is back to command the secondary as they look to get a big improvement as they face a much tougher schedule in 2023. In the box Duke loses Shaka Heyward who was the second leading tackler on the team last year but return everybody else including 29/36 sacks from last year with 5 upperclassmen. The Blue Devils are a team Notre Dame can ill-afford to take lightly even without considering their place in the schedule.
Beyond
Once the season gets to this halfway point I’m going to come back to this and recap how the Irish navigated the first half of their schedule and then look at the rest of their 2023 campaign using data from this actual season and what the teams look like for a more complete picture.