2023 Atlanta Braves season preview and prediction
The Bravos return to the diamond looking to win an NL East pennant for the 6th straight season.
After last season’s thrilling 162 game chase down of the New York Mets ended with yet another division championship many Braves fans had dreams of a repeat of the legendary 2021 postseason run. However, only shooting stars break the mold and Atlanta’s season came to an end in 4 games in the NLDS to the eventual NL Pennant winning Philadelphia Phillies. It was still a historic and successful season for the Braves as they won 100+ games for the first time since 2002, sent six players to the All Star Game, and had the top two finishers in NL Rookie of The Year voting in CF Michael Harris II and SP Spencer Strider. In a once again stacked NL East division the Braves are going to have to continue to be at their best and let’s see how Atlanta stacks up in 2023 with Opening Day on the horizon.
Behind The Dish
The Catcher position was one of great strength for the Atlanta Braves in 2022 (you’ll hear that about a lot of positions honestly) with Travis d’Arnaud and William Contreras both being selected to represent the NL as All Stars. TDA and Contreras ranked 6th and 12th in fWAR amongst all Catchers in MLB but despite that Alex Anthopolous decided to make yet another blockbuster trade orchestrating a 3-way-deal between Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Oakland. The Brewers got Contreras and pitching prospects Joel Payamps (OAK) and Justin Yeager (ATL) while Oakland received a ransom of Braves Catcher Manny Piña, Milwaukee’s 8th ranked prospect OF Esteury Ruiz, and Atlanta’s 1st, 6th, and 18th prospects in the form of LHP Kyle Muller, RHP Freddy Tarnok, and RHP Royber Salinas. In return for sending all that away the Braves received Catcher Sean Murphy who ranked 3rd in fWAR amongst Catchers in 2022. Murphy was one of three Catchers to post an fWAR above 5.0 joining Phillies star J.T. Realmuto and Orioles rookie phenom Adley Rutschman. Murphy put up good offensive stats, especially relative to the Catcher position, on a dreadful Oakland Athletics team in a home ballpark that is one of the unfriendliest to hitters in the sport.
Murphy had a 120 OPS+ and 122 wRC+ with a .250/.332/.426 slash line to go along with 18 HRs and 66 RBIs in 2022 with his Home Run total being tied for 7th amongst all Catchers (with fellow Braves teammate Travis d’Arnaud) but also brings one of the best arms at the position in the game which should be a huge boost to an area Atlanta has struggled with in the past. Murphy’s ability to throw lasers to catch would be base stealers will be a new weapon for the Braves to utilize. Alongside the newly acquired Murphy is the presence of Travis d’Arnaud who enters his 4th season with Atlanta. TDA had a career best 18 HRs last season and has always been a steady presence from the plate but perhaps the most shocking aspect of d’Arnaud’s career resurgence with the Braves has been his defense. Ranked as the 4th best defensive Catcher in MLB last season according to FanGraphs Travis is a high quality framer and pitch caller that allows the ceiling of Atlanta’s pitching to sky rocket. The combination of Murphy and d’Arnaud gives the Bravos the best Catching tandem in Major League Baseball for the second year in a row and should be a blast to watch.
The Infield
In 2022 the Atlanta Infield had to immediately deal with some key issues. Replacing Freddie Freeman, the life and blood of the franchise for over a decade, missing the young charismatic Ozzie Albies at 2B for over half the year, and questions about whether or not 3B Austin Riley could continue his meteoric development I’m not sure many people could’ve blamed the Braves for having a subpar season production wise but the 2022 season was anything but with Matt Olson, the heir to the Freeman throne, and Austin Riley combining to hit for 72 HRs and 196 RBIs while Dansby Swanson turned in a career year at Shortstop ranking 2nd in fWAR at the position (and being far and away 1st defensively) along with 25 dingers of his own and 95 RBIs. When it came to dealing with Albies’s injury Atlanta turned to an interesting host of replacements with the longest tenured of those being the 27-year-old Orlando Arcia. Arcia a SS by trade put in a respectable campaign posting above league average stats in 67 games played but there was also the case of prospect Vaughn Grissom who lit the world on fire during his debut before cooling off towards the end of the 2022 season and showing enough defensive concerns to have him be replaced by Arcia. In 2023 the Braves are going to have Ozzie Albies back at 2B seemingly better than ever (projected to have 20+ HRs 80+ RBIs and 3.3 fWAR) but are going to have to try and recreate longtime Shortstop Dansby Swanson in the aggregate.
Atlanta didn’t make a big splash in the Shortstop market despite the wealth of talent available (Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, etc.) and has sent prospects Vaughn Grissom and Braden Shewmake back to the minors so for now it seems like they are going to stick with Arcia at SS. Orlando has made good enough plays with the glove and was a highly regarded prospect at the position but is projected to be just barely above league average and slightly below average from the plate in 2023. Shortstop will be a position of interest and while an in-season trade seems unlikely keep an eye on Grissom and Shewmake making noise in the minors. In terms of Utility the Braves brought back a familiar face in 2021 World Series Champion Ehire Adrianza who’s familiarity with the Braves should help make him a once again welcome addition to the bench. With Olson, Riley, and Albies all ready to run whatever happens with Shortstop offensively should have its impact lessened by the titanic power Atlanta has elsewhere on the dirt. It’ll be interesting to see how the Braves navigate losing one of the best defensive Shortstops in the sport as well as the new shift rules (Atlanta was one of the biggest adapters of the shift) but the Infield should once again be a bright spot for the Braves.
The Outfield
The Outfielders present both the greatest talents of the Braves and perhaps their biggest question mark at the same time in 2023. Lurking in Center is of course the 2022 NL Rookie of The Year Michael Harris II who made the jump from AA Mississippi to Atlanta seamlessly ranking 26th in all of MLB in fWAR despite playing in just 114 games at the Major League level. The 136 wRC+ and 135 OPS+ were mighty impressive but the calling card of this outstanding player is his ability with the glove as Harris was 92nd percentile in Outs Above Average amongst all players in 2022 even with the major discrepancy in innings played. His arm was fantastic too sniping baserunners from all over the outfielder good for a 95th percentile in arm strength. Harris’s speed also allowed him to leg out some impressive extra base hits that gave Atlanta instant scoring chances from his typical 9 hole spot in the lineup but there is power there as well with Harris smashing 19 HRs (Good for 4th among rookies) on top of all of that. The one thing for 2023 MHII looks to improve upon is discipline at the plate. Harris struggled with striking out (29th percentile in K%) and drawing walks (11th percentile in BB%) but projections are still high on the 22-year-old sudden star pegging him as one of the key cogs in the Atlanta war machine going for 20+HRs, 90+ RBIs, and being a threat on the base paths as well which given the new rules about throwing over and the size of the bags themselves being higher expect a renaissance in stolen bases this year in Major League Baseball. Joining Harris in the Outfield is El Abusador the Venezuelan superstar a man who needs no introduction: Ronald Acuña Jr. Acuña had a turbulent 2022 campaign coming off of his 2021 ACL tear the Braves star admitted it bothered him throughout the season and only about now he feels as if he has fully recovered from the injury. In 119 games last season Acuña’s underlying stats were still fantastic offensively and indicative of the superstar we know him to be but they also paint a picture that shows how much he struggled with his knee in the field.
In terms of basic stats Ronald was still good posting a 114 OPS+ and wRC+ along with 15 HRs, 50 RBIs, and a .351 OBP but it speaks a lot to the great numbers we are accustomed to with RAJ that those seem merely pedestrian. Ronald had a great spring and enjoyed success with his Venezuelan team in the World Baseball Classic and looks every bit the part of an NL MVP Candidate.
Projections love Ronald for 2023 and you should too. The consensus seems to be near 30 HRs, a wRC+ in the 140s, and a plethora of stolen bases as well as the keen ability to get on base that has made him a staple of the leadoff spot for Atlanta. That of course leaves the elephant in the outfield the LF spot. Marcell Ozuna is a million dollar disaster both on and off the field and while he can get hot at the plate for a time his defense leaves a lot to be desired. There is the curious case of Eddie Rosario who was a one eyed bandit in 2022 turning in some dreadful offensive numbers but could having a successful WBC and Spring Training be an indication of a return to good form? There’s also the free agent signings of Jordan Luplow, Kevin Pillar, and Sam Hilliard who are all competing for the spot as well. Luplow spent 2022 in Arizona and while he doesn’t bring a whole lot to the plate offensively he’s a speedy Outfielder with a really good arm that at the very least could make for a late inning defensive substitution candidate. Pillar is the elder statesman of the group as the 34-year-old former longtime Blue Jay looks for a career resurgence in Atlanta but since 2020 his offensive numbers have fallen off the face of the earth and have shown no signs of an upturn. But then there is Sam Hilliard the former member of the Colorado Rockies had a poor 2022 with the bat (which is impressive considering he played 81 games at Coors) but was absolutely lethal with his arm proving to be one of the top defensive corner Outfielders in MLB. I feel like Atlanta could do with some form of platooning Eddie Rosario, Hilliard, and Luplow given the latter two’s gifts with the glove and legs and the former’s potential with the bat and I foresee Ozuna getting some potential DH time or being relegated to a bench pinch hitting role. Do not be shocked if the Braves look to add Outfielders at the Trade Deadline which has been a staple of the Alex Anthopolous experience so far.
Starting Pitching
You may want to sit down for this but the Braves starting rotation is really good. Atlanta had two finishers in the fWAR top 10 for Pitchers in 2022 with Max Fried (5.0) and rookie Spencer Strider (4.9) landing at 7th and 8th respectively. Strider came on to the scene first in the bullpen at the beginning of the season and transitioned to the starting rotation in June. Over his 131.2 Innings Pitched Strider struck out 202 batters breaking Randy Johnson’s record for fastest pitcher to 200 Ks in a season ever. The record breaking did not stop there as Strider broke John Smoltz’s record for Strikeouts in a game with 16 vs Colorado. All that combined with a 2.67 ERA, 152 ERA+, 1.83 FIP, and 13.8 K/9 led Strider to finish 2nd in ROY voting. Strider not winning the award could very well be all because of his oblique injury that kept him from the end of the season and hampered his postseason debut vs Philadelphia.
Injuries will also be what keeps the National League Wins Leader from 2022 off the mound to begin the year as Kyle Wright’s season debut will be pushed back to allow him time to heal from a shoulder injury suffered this spring. Wright broke through in a big way last season in his first extended stay in the majors finishing 43rd in fWAR amongst pitchers as a 26-year-old. Alongside his 21 victories Wright posted a 3.19 ERA, 127 ERA+, and 174 Strikeouts across 180.1 IP. Kyle figures to slide in as the #3 Starter for Atlanta once he returns from injury and will hope to improve upon his breakout 2022 campaign. What will allow for Wright to take as much time as he needs to rehab is the wealth of depth the Braves have at the position. Prospects Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd will be on the Major League roster to begin the season and make starts in Wright’s place as well as competing for the #5 spot in the rotation. Shuster finished 6th amongst all pitchers this Spring in ERA with a 1.74 across 20.1 Innings Pitched. He was also near the top in WHIP with a 0.77 good enough for 3rd and Batting Average Against tied for 2nd with .130. Shuster entered this season as Atlanta’s #1 prospect and will look to make a similar jump as Strider did last year and make his stay on the 40-man-roster permanent. Dylan Dodd had a good Spring as well posting a 2.00 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 20 strikeouts over 18.0 Innings Pitched. Dodd was a 3rd round draft pick by Atlanta in the 2021 draft and will be making his Major League debut when the Braves play in St. Louis for their second series of the season near his hometown of Bismarck, Missouri. For the #5 starting job there’s also the possibility of a Mike Soroka or Ian Anderson return to form in the minors and earning a shot. The veteran of this group is the eternal 39-year-old Charlie Morton. Morton had an interesting 2022 season that I would be remiss without presenting even more context for. Morton broke his leg in Game 1 of the 2021 World Series (and he still shoved with a fractured fibula by the way) and then the Owners initiated lockout occurred which meant Morton could not continue his rehab at team facilities. That coupled with a shortened and weird Spring Training as a result of the lockout and a rushed crammed schedule to fit 162 games in Morton’s somewhat pedestrian 2022 stats look a lot more impressive. Chuck still provided elite strikeout material leading the Braves in Ks with 205 across 172.0 Innings Pitched. Morton and Strider were the first teammates with 200+ Strikeouts in franchise history since Old Hoss Radbourn and Bill Stemmyer in 1886 with the Boston Beaneaters. The ERA and ERA+ were troubling with Charlie posting a 4.34 and 94 respectively but there were still stretches of the old Morton especially in a 10 Start stretch from July 3rd to August 27th where across 60.1 Innings Morton had a 3.28 ERA. A full offseason for once should do wonders for the former groundball wizard and Morton should make a fine #4 in the Braves rotation. And last but certainly not least is the undisputed Ace of the staff in Atlanta with Max Fried.
Fried finished 2nd in NL Cy Young voting and his numbers more than back it up. A 2.48 ERA across 30 Starts with a 164 ERA+, 5.31 K/BB, and 2.70 FIP to boot. It will be interesting to see how Fried adapts to the new shift rules as a big groundball generating pitcher as well as the Braves having to replace Dansby Swanson’s elite defensive production at one of the premier positions on the field which goes for all of Atlanta’s pitchers. The addition of Sean Murphy’s arm and defense should do a great job of offsetting the new throw over rules. The pitch clock is another obvious change to the game but one I feel like the Braves pitchers will adapt to rather easily. Projections love the Braves pitching staff as a whole putting them 2nd in the entire Major Leagues behind only the arsenal of arms the New York Yankees have at their disposal.
Bullpen
In terms of positional depth there may not be a greater strength for the Braves than their bullpen. FanGraphs projects the Atlanta Bullpen to be far and away the best in all of baseball this season:
Gone from the team is 2022 National League saves leader Kenley Jansen and Slider God Luke Jackson and Atlanta will be without Tyler Matzek while he recovers from Tommy John surgery and STILL they are projected to be the best. The biggest addition to the arm barn came in the form of trading for Joe Jiménez from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for prospects Justyn-Henry-Malloy and Jake Higginbotham as well as cash considerations. Jiménez is only 28-years-old and has some electric stuff that should excited both Braves fans and coaches.
And the craziest thing about the Braves depth? Joe figures to be the 4th best reliever for Atlanta in 2023. Rasiel Iglesias will miss the beginning of the season with shoulder inflammation but the former Los Angeles Angels Closer had an instant and legendary impact in Atlanta after being traded for Jesse Chavez (who is once again back) and Tucker Davidson. Across 28 appearances in 2022 for the Braves Iglesias posted a 0.34 ERA, 30/5 K/BB, and a staggering 1203 ERA+ (203% better than league average). Joining Iglesias at the top of the bullpen is the cowboy A.J. Minter who had his best full season in the Majors last season with a 2.06 ERA, 12.1 K/9, 94/15 K/BB, and 198 ERA+ in 75 games. Collin McHugh and Lucas Luetge are two high leverage arms as well to rely on with McHugh’s 2022 Atlanta campaign being very solid with a 2.60 ERA in almost 70 innings and a 0.938 WHIP to go with 75 strikeouts. Luetge was acquired from the Yankees in exchange for minor leaguers Indigo Diaz and Chad Durbin and with New York in 2022 he put up a 2.67 ERA and 147 ERA+ while being one of the league’s best in limiting hard contact
Not to mention behind all those guys the Bravos have Jackson Stephens, Dylan Lee, the aforementioned Chavez, and Kirby Yates in the armory as well. Facing Atlanta pitching is going to be a tall task for any lineup this season.
Opening Schedule
Atlanta opens the season this Thursday in Washington at 1:05 P.M. with a Max Fried vs Patrick Corbin showdown to get the campaign underway. Atlanta will then go on the road for three more games vs the defending NL Central Champion St. Louis Cardinals before making their home debut April 6th against the hype machine San Diego Padres.
Uniforms?
This season Nike has entered into a 4 + 1 uniform rule where teams are allowed just 4 different uniforms plus their city connect uniform. The Braves recently released their city connect look and its homage to the Hank Aaron era of Braves uniforms is both awesome and an obvious indicator that the throwback uniforms normally worn on Hank Aaron weekend will not be there this year. Spring Training jerseys do count towards this rule so Atlanta is going to have to choose three uniforms out of the White, Navy, Grey, and Red jerseys. Obviously the base White home uniforms are safe so that leaves the Friday night Reds and the two road uniforms. If I had to make a guess the Bravos will choose the Red and Navy leaving the grey to the wayside which has seemed to be a trend amongst the teams having to lose a uniform. I’ll miss the greys because I thought they looked good and let the red stand out but they’re definitely my least favorite of all the possible selections. We’ll always remember what was done in them though.
Predictions
Shocker: I think the Braves are going to be really good in 2023. This is the continued culmination of an outstanding rebuild that has secured Atlanta a seat at the winners table in MLB for the foreseeable future. The Braves find themselves in the top 5 of pretty much every conceivable ranking and I am incredibly excited to watch them compete in the 2023 Regular Season so here are some accolades/predictions:
MVP: Ronald Acuña Jr returns to his MVP form putting up a 30/30 season and captaining the Braves lineup to another great season.
Cy Young: Max Fried turns in another great campaign as the Braves #1 man on the mound finishing in the Top 3 of Cy Young voting yet again and racking up more awards.
Rookie of the Year: I think Jared Shuster makes a big impression in his time in the Majors filling in for Kyle Wright and cements himself as a fixture for Atlanta’s pitching.
Comeback Player of the Year: I was torn on this one but watch for Ian Anderson in the minor leagues. Anderson still has tremendous stuff and the more time he spends in the Gwinnett pitching labs the more faith I have in him getting it right with his command.
Reliever of the Year: A.J. Minter moseys on over to an All Star selection behind an incredible 2023 where he dominates the 8th/9th inning.
Team Prediction: I think that the injuries/departures from other NL East rivals make the idea of winning a 6th straight division pennant a lot less daunting than initially thought. Although the Mets and Phillies are still incredible ball clubs who will not go quietly and will compete with the Braves until the final day of the regular season (and I think all three teams make the postseason) I think Atlanta’s depth just pushes them over the edge to a 104-58 season and a NL East crown.
Other Divisions and Wild Card teams:
AL East: Yankees, AL Central: Guardians, AL West: Astros, AL WC: Blue Jays, Mariners, Twins
NL Central: St. Louis, NL West: Dodgers, NL WC: Mets, Padres, Phillies